This series of webinars give the participants hands-on training in the use of Applied Information Economics (AIE). It consists of a total of 9 hours of training delivered in five separate modules. In addition, all participants who also want to refine their skills at providing subjective estimates of probabilities, receive a $150 coupon to apply toward Calibration Training! When the AIE Analyst Training modules are completed, the AIE Level 1 Certification Exam (included with the purchase of AIE Analyst Training) may be taken. Click here for more information about the Certification Exam.
AIE Intro – Duration: 1 hour
In this session, Introduction to Applied Information Economics: The Need for Better Measurements, you will learn an overview of methods that show independently, scientifically measured improvements to management forecasts and decisions. • The key to AIE is how it focuses the analysis on measuring what matters. AIE computes the value of information for the uncertainties in a decision and targets measurement efforts towards areas which have the most effect on the decision. This has been widely used in many practical business environments including insurance, manufacturing, transportation, utilities, banking, .com startups, and media. AIE is a complete-solution methodology that includes training, tools, process documentation, and initial consulting. Unlike methods that produce arbitrary “scores” or unrealistic ROI’s, AIE conducts a true “Risk/Return” analysis that would be recognizable to actuaries, economists, and financial analysts. All measurements are real measurements that are based on proven methods and have a known statistical validity.
A.1 – Duration: 2 hours
In the first module you learn about the illusion of immeasurability and the value of information. Some factors that have bearing on business decisions are widely perceived as “intangible” or “immeasurable”. If we truly care about these “intangible” factors, then they must have observable, thus measurable, consequences. Session A.1 of the revamped HDR webinar series will discuss this illusion of immeasurability. In addition, we’ll learn about a method to determine which factors have the greatest impact on any given decision by measuring the value of information. Often, these factors are not what one would suspect.
A.2 – Duration: 2 hours
In our first analysis module, The Illusion of Immeasurability and the Value of Information, we learned that everything is measurable and that we can measure the value of information. In module A.2 we delve into the challenges and benefits of modeling decisions under uncertainty: do deterministic or probabilistic models perform better? What do we mean by probabilistic model? What key metric can you derive when using a probabilistic model?
A.3 – Duration: 2 hours
This two-hour module features practical examples and applications of Applied Information Economics methods. Participants will learn how (and when) to use various statistical methods through a convenient set of spreadsheet based “power tools.” This training presents basics of model development including:
- Transitioning a simple business case into a Monte Carlo simulation with calibrated inputs
- Computing information values and designing appropriate measurements
- Plotting results against risk/return preferences and conducing basic portfolio optimization
A.4 – Duration: 2 hours
In the final module, you will learn more methods for improving judgment. These include statistical methods such as regression and the Lens method. We discuss the benefits of regressions, how to interpret results, and some of the pitfalls of running regressions. Later discussion focuses on the Lens method as a way to reduce human error when using expert estimations – through calibration, subjective assessment of scenarios, and the statistical analysis of those assessments.
Optional additional training – All Analyst training participants also get $150 off of Calibration Training – Duration: 3 hours
In this webinar you will learn the techniques behind subjectively assessing the probability of uncertain events and the ranges of uncertain quantities. This is an essential skill for anyone who needs to consider chance in decisions. Participants will see their skills measurably improve during the training with a series of “calibration exams.” Analyst participants will receive a coupon for the discount after purchase. See the Calibration product in the shopping cart for more information and to see available times.
Contact us for information on group rates!