Project Management/Project Risk is the #1 Measurement Challenge

According to our recently completed “Measurement Challenges” survey, project risk and project management-related issues are the #1 most frequently identified measurement challenges, followed closely by change management and organizational transformation.  The survey also showed that while only half have received training to address these problems, the majority feel they need training in statistical methods or even the analytical methods provided in Excel. This is a brief summary of the findings of that survey. (more…)

Hunting Wolves in Wisconsin

Given the current pricing of wolf hunting licenses in Wisconsin, it is unlikely that revenue from the wolf licenses offset the negative effects wolves have from killing deer, livestock, and dogs. However, there are two caveats to this statement: first, to make this assessment definitive depends on accurately estimating the worth of the life of a deer in Wisconsin, and may depend on more accurately estimating the monetary equivalent loss for a family who has had a dog killed by a wolf. (more…)

Feeling the Beat

Oracle, PROFIT, 2012

“Google searches, Twitter feeds, and even Amazon sales ranks produce a lot of data—data that can be used to identify trends in real time and help business leaders get ahead. ‘There’s a revolution in data about society,’ says Douglas Hubbard, author of Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities (Wiley, 2011). Here Hubbard tells Profit what the pulse is—and how to find it.” [view article]

The great IT risk measurement debate

CSO, 2/28/2011

Risk evaluation models in IT are broken, but we can do more with available data than you might think by correcting for known errors in risk perception. Those are a few of the conclusions Alex Hutton and Doug Hubbard came to in their dissection of risk management. CSO Senior Editor Bill Brenner sat in on the conversation. Here are some highlights. [view article]

Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models

by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson
Analytics, 10/28/2009

The article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits. [view article]

Modeling Without Measurements: How the Decision Analysis Culture’s Lack of Empiricism Reduces Its Effectiveness

by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson OR/MS
Today, 10/09/2009

In this article my coauthor and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models. Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create. We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed. We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them. [view article]