Douglas Hubbard will be speaking at the following events in the near future:

• The 2010 Zurich Risk Summit, Lucerne, Switzerland September 9-11
• SIMposium 2010, Atlanta GA, October 4
• Ohio Digital Government Summit, Columbus OH, October 5
• Toronto CIO Forum, Toronto, October 26-27
• Portland CIO Forum, Portland OR, November 17-18

Interest in HDR webinars continues to grow and we will continue to meet demand with the new summer schedule. Contact Hubbard Decision Research if you want input on the schedule of the next webinar or just visit this site to get the news about the next webinar schedule. The webinar topics include:

• The Applied Information Economics Webinar - Comprehensive AIE training, required for Level 1 certification
• The Calibration Workshop - Measure your skill at assessing odds and learn how to improve it
• Does Your Decision Analysis Work? - What works and what doesn't in popular decision methods
• Certification Exam for Level I AIE Analysts - The professional certification that shows you can be an analyst on an AIE project

Contact HDR for group discounts or to schedule special webinars for your organization.

Applied Information Economics (AIE) Modules I & II

Modules I & II are two 3.5 hours sessions taught on consecutive days on the following dates (all times are Central US)

Summer dates and times: See Products Page

Attend Modules I & II together ($1,450 per person) or Module I only ($825 per person) - Go to Products to pay with PayPal or contact HDR for other payment options. Modules I and II satisfy the training requirements for Level I certification in AIE.

Doug Hubbard, the author of How to Measure Anything and the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) will describe how to use his methods to measure any “intangible”, to think of risk like an actuary, and to look at IT portfolios from a risk/return point-of-view. The first 3.5-hour module of this two-module training is an overview the AIE measurement approach designed for any analyst to C-level person who has responsibility for creating, reviewing or acting on business cases or performance metrics. The second 3.5-hour module focuses on practical examples and cases. This module is updated with material from Hubbard’s new book, The Failure of Risk Management.

AIE Training Module I: The Introduction to AIE

1. Introduction to Applied Information Economics & Measurement: This session introduces the audience to Applied Information Economics (AIE) and its measurement philosophy, including the three reasons why many things are incorrectly perceived to be “intangible."
2. Dangerous Pitfalls: Participants will learn why many popular methods for assessing risks or decisions improve confidence in decisions but, as research shows, don’t actually improve decisions.
3. Understanding Measurement & Risk: Participants will learn how to think about risk in quantitative terms just as any actuary or statistician would.
4. Calibrated Probability Estimates: Assessing one’s own uncertainty quantitatively is a skill that can be taught. Participants will be introduced to the process of “calibrating” people for probability assessments and will learn why most subjective probabilities can’t be trusted.
5. Monte Carlo Simulations: Monte Carlo simulations allow us to “do the math” when we have no exact numbers – only ranges and probabilities. In a Monte Carlo simulation a computer randomly generates thousands of scenarios and keeps track of the outcomes and their probabilities. Participants learn that constructing a Monte Carlo simulation is not much more complicated than a traditional business case.
6. How AIE changes decisions: Risk/Return Analysis (RRA) with the AIE approach in over 40 IT investments has revealed some fascinating findings. This session will show how an AIE approach would significantly change IT investment priorities and what measurements receive the greatest focus.

AIE Training Module II: Practical Exercises

Practical Exercises: The participants will see and be involved in an application of AIE in a practical IT investment problem including:

• Converting the basic business case to a Monte Carlo case with calibrated estimates
• Computing information values and designing measurements
• Plotting results against risk/return preferences and conducing basic portfolio optimization

Calibration Workshop

Calibration training is provided in a single, 3.5 Hour Webinar (all times are Central US)

Summer dates and times: See Products page

$580 per person - Go to Products to pay with PayPal or contact HDR for other payment options.

Doug Hubbard, the author of How to Measure Anything and the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) will teach you the techniques behind subjectively assessing the probability of uncertain events and the ranges of uncertain quantities. This is an essential skill for anyone who needs to consider chance in decisions. Participants will see their skills measurably evolve during the training with a series of "calibration exams." You will also learn some of the techniques involved in training others to be calibrated.

Management Placebos: The scientific data about which analysis methods really work.

A 90-Minute webinar (all times are Central US)

Summer dates and times: See Products page

$110 per person - Go to Products to pay with PayPal or contact HDR for other payment options.

Doug Hubbard will explain why many of the most popular decision support methods - including business cases, portfolio prioritization, risk analysis and even performance metrics - don't really work as intended. Many decision makers experience a kind of "placebo effect" and have confidence in their scoring methods and business cases. However, research shows their estimates and decisions are not improved at all and can even be much worse. Learning how to tell analysis methods that work from what doesn't should be the priority of every key decision maker. In order for a decision analysis method to "work," it has to be able to show that decision makers make better decisions and forecasts on average than they would using their intuition alone. Don't let your next big decision be made by something that makes you feel better about decisions but doesn't actually improve them on average.

Certification Exam for Level I Analysts

2.5 Hour Exam

This is the exam for Level I certification of AIE Analysts. Prior attendance to training Modules I & II are highly recommended.

Watch for the next exam schedule, or contact HDR to schedule one.

$480 per person - Go to Products to pay with PayPal or contact HDR for other payment options.

Pulse: How the Internet Is Becoming the Ultimate Buzz-Meter

A 90-Minute webinar (all times are Central US)

Summer dates and times: See Products page

$120 per person - Go to Products to pay with PayPal or contact HDR for other payment options.

The most powerful measurement tool for social trends, economics, company image and political opinions is also the most underutilized. The largest repository of human knowledge that ever existed – the Internet - is also the largest record of human interests and activities. But new tools are being rapidly developed that all a real-time assessment of these trends. It many cases, it would be similar to having the equivalent of a “Dow Jones Index” for your company image or the risks of terrorism.

From forecasting flu outbreaks to movie box office success, from measuring unemployment to consumer confidence, a combination of new tools and increased use of the internet offers a new and powerful opportunity for businesses and government. Even Amazon book ranks and ebay auctions can be used as indicators of public opinion and economic activity.

This webinar will introduce how this powerful resources can be used to assess market trends and public opinion before the slower and far more expensive, traditional government reports and Gallup polls are published. Any manager who doesn’t learn how to use this powerful resource will soon find themselves out of touch with the most important trends affecting their organization.