The Failure of Risk Management Downloads

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Chapter 3 Controlled Experiment Example Spreadsheet

The spreadsheet behind the example of the hypothetical risk experiment with a drug company on page 44. It shows that the results are unlikely to be the result of chance alone.

Chapter 6 Irrational Belief in Small Samples Spreadsheet

Shows the math behind the example on page 100 disproving a common belief that smaller but more conclusive-looking samples provide more information than larger but apparently less conclusive samples.

Chapter 7 Dawes Linear Model Z score Example Spreadsheet

This shows how z-scores are computed using a simple Excel function.

Chapter 9 Monte Carlo Example Spreadsheet

The example of a Monte Carlo applied to the risk of not breaking even on an equipment lease. It has a dynamic histogram that changes with every run.

Chapter 9 Power Law Random Generator Spreadsheet

This is the random number generator that allows the user to set randomly generate power law-distributed values. It has a “dynamic histogram” that allows the chart and histogram to be updated on the fly.

Chapter 9 Normal Distribution Example Spreadsheet

This illustrates the normal distribution example shown on page 182. It has two worksheets. On the first worksheet, it shows how the upper and lower bound are calculated given a standard deviation and it illustrates what different probabilities look like.

Chapter 11 Bayesian Inversion Example Spreadsheet

This is the “Robust Bayesian Inversion” example of the probability of a launch failure after just a few launches of a rocket.

Additional Calibration Questions Document

For those who need to practice with more calibration questions than were provided in the book’s appendix.