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Can “expert” training increase confidence while making judgments worse?

I came across more interesting research about possible “placebo effects” in decision making.  According to the two studies cited below, receiving formal training in lie detection (e.g. so that law enforcement officers are more likely to detect a untruthful statement by a suspect) has a curious effect.  The training greatly increases confidence of the experts in... Read More.

Still no evidence…

I get many emails about the validity of Risk Maps, Risk Scores and Risk Matrices in risk analysis.  I know there are a lot of passionate proponents of these methods (and many heavily-invested vendors) but there is still no evidence that such methods improve forecasts or decisions. Read my skeptical look at many risk analysis... Read More.

Evolving Taxonomy of Major Risks

Originally posted at http://www.howtomeasureanything.com, on Friday, September 11, 2009 9:02:59 AM, by Unknown. “On page 47 of HTFRM Mr. Hubbard refers to the website for viewing an evolving taxonomy of major risks. I am having trouble locating it, am I missing something?” Not at all. We haven’t had much discussion about it so it was... Read More.