Project Management/Project Risk is the #1 Measurement Challenge

According to our recently completed “Measurement Challenges” survey, project risk and project management-related issues are the #1 most frequently identified measurement challenges, followed closely by change management and organizational transformation.  The survey also showed that while only half have received training to address these problems, the majority feel they need training in statistical methods or even the analytical methods provided in Excel. This is a brief summary of the findings of that survey. (more…)

Hunting Wolves in Wisconsin

Given the current pricing of wolf hunting licenses in Wisconsin, it is unlikely that revenue from the wolf licenses offset the negative effects wolves have from killing deer, livestock, and dogs. However, there are two caveats to this statement: first, to make this assessment definitive depends on accurately estimating the worth of the life of a deer in Wisconsin, and may depend on more accurately estimating the monetary equivalent loss for a family who has had a dog killed by a wolf. (more…)

Feeling the Beat

Oracle, PROFIT, 2012

“Google searches, Twitter feeds, and even Amazon sales ranks produce a lot of data—data that can be used to identify trends in real time and help business leaders get ahead. ‘There’s a revolution in data about society,’ says Douglas Hubbard, author of Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities (Wiley, 2011). Here Hubbard tells Profit what the pulse is—and how to find it.” [view article]

Reversed columns in regression example

On page 173 of the 2nd edition of How to Measure Anything, I show a formula for estimating ratings points of a TV show based on the correlation to weeks spent promoting the show.  The formula shown is actually an estimate of promotion weeks based on ratings points instead of an estimate of ratings points based on promotion weeks.  The correct formula should be

Ratings points = 0.215*promotion weeks + 0.877.

The subsequent estimate of ratings points from 10 weeks of promotions should then be about 0.215*10+0.877 or 3 ratings points.

Doug Hubbard

Tim Peter for Marketing

I talked to someone who has both a vision as well as an impressive track record for marketing.  Tim Peter (www.timpeter.com) describes his services on his website as “proven solutions to improve your e-commerce results and your Internet marketing”.

I came across his site because I got a Google Alert on a flattering review he had written for How to Measure Anything and another review he wrote for Pulse on his blog (so, yes, I might be a bit biased in my review of Tim).  But my first impression was actually when I checked his sites rank on Alexa.com.  Checking the Alexa.com rank is now a habit I have when anyone who asks me for a radio interview, to contribute content in some way, or if I see any review of my books I read in blogs.   I found that for someone who has only been in business for 6 months, his traffic outranks many small SEO and marketing firms.  His traffic also is higher than mine and I’ve been promoting my site and the services described on it for many years.

After confirming his credentials on Alexa, I gave him a call and we talked for a while about his area of expertise.  He seemed to me to have a lot of insight in the issue of webmarketing and he tries to measure it – which, as you know, makes me a fan of what he does.  Check out his site and talk to him if you are looking for that kind of service.

Doug Hubbard

The Impact of “Pulse”

“Information from the Pulse will become part of models that are dynamically simulating and forecasting businesses and the consequences of management decisions … it will have at least the following four types of impact:”

  1. “Decisions based on responses to macro-trends will be faster. We won’t have to wait weeks—and certainly not 15 months as in the NBER report on the end of the recession—for indications of changes in fundamental economic factors, health conditions, and public opinions.”
  2. “In some cases, the Pulse will be more accurate than traditional methods of collecting data about major trends. While the traditional methods like polls will continue to be used to calibrate and validate the Pulse, the Pulse will avoid some problems that plague traditional surveys.”
  3. “Trends that otherwise would not have been seen at all will be visible. Traditional surveys have to be purpose-built. In other words, we have to have an idea of what we are looking for in advance, and then we have to collect that specific data. The Pulse offers a way to see trends that no one even knew to look for when the data was generated.”
  4. “Basic models of society will change. Our ability to investigate and respond to the environment more quickly and accurately has implications for organizational structure, logistics, finance, and virtually every other part of business, government, and the study of humanity. This may be the greatest impact of the Pulse.”

– Hubbard, Douglas W. (2011). Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities (Kindle Locations 439-453). Wiley. Kindle Edition.