Hubbard Decision Research

CSO, 2/28/2011

Risk evaluation models in IT are broken, but we can do more with available data than you might think by correcting for known errors in risk perception. Those are a few of the conclusions Alex Hutton and Doug Hubbard came to in their dissection of risk management. CSO Senior Editor Bill Brenner sat in on the conversation. Here are some highlights. [view article]

by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson
Analytics, 10/28/2009

The article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits. [view article]

by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson OR/MS Today, 10/09/2009 In this article my coauthor and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models. Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create. We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed. We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them. [view article]

by Douglas Hubbard Boston Society of Architects, Sept/Oct 2008 Doug Hubbard reviews his original “anything can be measured” concept for an audience of architects. The message of the reasons why some things still seem intangible or immeasurable are refined and restated in the first article since the release of Hubbard’s seminal book, How to Measure Anything. [inactive link]

by Karen Schwartz
FedTech, 02/15/2006

Karen Schwartz interviews Doug Hubbard, among others, about measurements in the Federal Government. [view article]

by Dan Gilmore
Supply Chain Digest, 06/15/2004

Dan Gilmore interviews Doug Hubbard about the use of weighted scoring methods for selection of vendors for supply chain management. It is a short but fairly complete discussion of the shortcomings of decision processes like this. [view article]

The Editors
Eweek, 11/10/2003

Baseline interviews Doug Hubbard about how to start thinking about IT risk more like an actuary would, instead of the subject “1 to 5″ scales. Another consultant interviewed for the story says scientific measurements are “ideal in theory” but most managers aren’t well versed in statistical research. Actually, HDR uses scientific methods in practice (not just theory) and total mastery of the subject by management is not a constraint (do managers really understand network management, database design or encryption?). Fortunately, the editors allow Hubbard to respond to the objections. [view article]

Case Study by Elana Varon, Expert Analysis by Doug Hubbard
CIO Magazine, 08/08/2003

The State of Iowa implements a new weighted scoring system in this entry in CIO Magazine’s ongoing case study series. While Varon believes weighted scoring methods are a valid decision-making process, Hubbard gives a somewhat more critical view of Iowa’s approach (which is no surprise to Hubbard’s readers). [view article]

by Tracy Mayor
CIO Magazine, 07/15/2002

This is a fairly comprehensive review of IT valuation methods. Follow the “probabilistic methods” link to go to the section that discusses AIE. It errs in distinguishing a clear line between Real-Options Valuation and AIE (AIE uses real options). [view article]