You Can Measure Anything
“People think they do not have the required data. However, organizations record all kinds of data that can be relevant to your needs. Executives have powerful tools to extract data, they just need to ask the questions.” [Download]
Feeling the Beat
“Google searches, Twitter feeds, and even Amazon sales ranks produce a lot of data—data that can be used to identify trends in real time and help business leaders get ahead. ‘There’s a revolution in data about society,’ says Douglas Hubbard, author of Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities (Wiley, 2011). Here Hubbard tells Profit what the pulse is—and how to find it.” [view article]
The Great IT Risk Measurement Debate
“Risk evaluation models in IT are broken, but we can do more with available data than you might think by correcting for known errors in risk perception.” Those are a few of the conclusions Alex Hutton and Doug Hubbard came to in their dissection of risk management. CSO Senior Editor Bill Brenner sat in on the conversation. Here are some highlights.[view article]
Risk and Uncertainty
“As the breadth of risk management grows, new industries and standards organizations are weighing in on what risk means and how to analyze and manage it.” -Douglas Hubbard in Pushing the Boundary. This chapter is included in Zurich Insurance’s annual Global Risk Management Summit publication. The chapter begins on page 10.[view article]
Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models
Analytics, 10/28/2009
The article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits.[view article]
Modeling Without Measurements: How the Decision Analysis Culture's Lack of Empiricism Reduces Its Effectiveness
OR/MS Today, 10/09/2009
In this article my coauthor and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models. Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create. We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed. We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them.[view article]
It's All an Illusion
by Douglas Hubbard
Boston Society of Architects, Sept/Oct 2008
Doug Hubbard reviews his original “anything can be measured” concept for an audience of architects. The message of the reasons why some things still seem intangible or immeasurable are refined and restated in the first article since the release of Hubbard’s seminal book, How to Measure Anything.[view article]
Measuring Up
FedTech, 02/15/2006
Karen Schwartz interviews Doug Hubbard, among others, about measurements in the Federal Government.[view article]
Are Weighted Averages for Vendor Selection a Waste of Time?
Supply Chain Digest, 06/15/2004
Dan Gilmore interviews Doug Hubbard about the use of weighted scoring methods for selection of vendors for supply chain management. It is a short but fairly complete discussion of the shortcomings of decision processes like this.[view article]
Getting More Precise at Risk Assessment
Eweek, 11/10/2003
Baseline interviews Doug Hubbard about how to start thinking about IT risk more like an actuary would, instead of the subject “1 to 5″ scales. Another consultant interviewed for the story says scientific measurements are “ideal in theory” but most managers aren’t well versed in statistical research. Actually, HDR uses scientific methods in practice (not just theory) and total mastery of the subject by management is not a constraint (do managers really understand network management, database design or encryption?). Fortunately, the editors allow Hubbard to respond to the objections.[view article]
ROIowa
CIO Magazine, 08/08/2003
The State of Iowa implements a new weighted scoring system in this entry in CIO Magazine’s ongoing case study series. While Varon believes weighted scoring methods are a valid decision-making process, Hubbard gives a somewhat more critical view of Iowa’s approach (which is no surprise to Hubbard’s readers).[view article]
A Buyer's Guide to IT Value Methodologies
CIO Magazine, 07/15/2002
This is a fairly comprehensive review of IT valuation methods. Follow the “probabilistic methods” link to go to the section that discusses AIE. It errs in distinguishing a clear line between Real-Options Valuation and AIE (AIE uses real options).[view article]
IT Portfolio Management
Network World Fusion, 04/01/2002
April 4, 2002 Network World writer Joanne Cummings interviews Doug Hubbard about assessing risk and return in IT portfolios.[view article]
Containing the Pain of Scope Creep
Baseline, 3/1/2002
Doug Hubbard provides the authors with a practical example of the costs of adding one more function to software in development. The true costs are probably greater than you expect once a few categories of “hidden costs” are properly considered.[view article]
Measuring Up: The CIO's Shallow Pockets
Baseline, 2/4/2002
Hertzberg interviews Doug Hubbard about how much CIO’s spend on risk analysis and whether its enough.[view article]
The Probability Problem
Baseline Magazine, 12/10/2001
This is a practical explanation of the “Calibrated Probability” approach used in AIE. It even has a neat interactive tool. The article is based on an interview with Doug Hubbard.[view article]
Gauging IT Investments
Federal Computer Week, 12/10/2001
This discusses how AIE was used (or will be used, since it was written before the project) at the Census Bureau.[view article]
Red Light, Green Light
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 10/01/2001
A case study written by Tracy Mayor explains how GM North America uses a color-coded project status tracking method. Doug Hubbard critiques this approach the “Expert Analysis” column. While the approach gets good marks on presentation, Hubbard explains how a statistical method can be used to improve upon the analysis.[inactive link]
Do The Math
CIO Magazine, 10/1/2001
Berinato talks to several IT value experts including Doug Hubbard.[inactive link]
New Evaluation Methodology Saves VA $30 Million
Washington Technology, 9/7/2001
Jackson reports on the Hubbard Decision Research consulting that saved the Department of Veterans Affairs millions. He misquotes Doug on one significant point. He says that this is the first application of Applied Information Economics to IT. Actually, it is the first application of AIE in government. It has been applied for years on IT investments.[view article]
Measure to Manage: ITFMA Gleanings
Business Technology, 07/24/2001
This article reviews the substance of the IT Financial Managers Association convention in Boston on July 10-13. The article focuses on three out of 30 presenters at the event. It dedicates a few paragraphs to the “IT Measurement Inversion” presentation Doug Hubbard is often asked to give at conferences.[inactive link]
Two Teams are Better than One
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 07/15/2001
This case study by Ben Worthen documents how Hygeia’s two team business case development methodology works. Doug Hubbard explains that while the division of duties may have a positive effect on the business cases, Hygeia’s approach has the same problems as most traditional cost/benefit analysis.[view article]
Meter Readers
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 01/15/2001
A case study written by Debby Young explains how Wisconsin Gas evaluated e-commerce projects with a method called “Loyalty Value Added”. In the “Critical Analysis” column Doug Hubbard explains that this is an impressive step in the right direction. However, there are two common pitfalls in using Real Option Valuation and probabilistic models that Wisconsin Gas (and everyone else) need to watch out for.[inactive link]
Use Caution with Function Points
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 10/15/2000
A case study written by Bill Roberts of how Nielsen Media uses Function Points to manage outsourcing. Doug Hubbard’s commentary focuses on the shortcomings of FPA for that purpose.[inactive link]
Keep on Trackin'
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 06/15/2000
Bill Roberts presents the case of how the largest trucking carrier in the US, Scheider National, made a business case for a new trailer tracking system. Mr. Hubbard’s commentary points out that their use of some decision theory methods were impressive, but they missed an opportunity to quantify some things they too quickly labeled “intangible”. Some significant benefits are left out of their analysis resulting in, frankly, a mediocre return. Fortunately, Schneider chose to implement the system regardless of the unimpressive payback.[inactive link]
An Audit Tale
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 05/01/2000
Debby Young writes a case study on how Mitre Corp, a not-for-profit providing IT consulting to the federal government, conducted a post-audit on a major enterprise application. Doug Hubbard’s commentary includes kudos for the measurement efforts but Mr. Hubbard suggests a more scientific probabilistic approach. And, once again, Mr. Hubbard points out that the intangibles really aren’t.[view article]
Capital Blue Cross
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 02/15/2000
CIO staff writer Richard Pastore writes a case study about how Capital Blue Cross of Harrisburg, PA evaluated a proposed decision-support system. Doug Hubbard then finishes with a commentary on the pros and cons of their approach.[view article]
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The IT Measurement Inversion
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 04/15/1999
This article is about our research on the value of measurements and measurement priorities. We find that if “information value” were properly quantified in most IT CBA’s, we would see that IT measurement priorities are backward.[view article]
Hurdling Risk
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 06/15/1998
Hurdle rates are a minimum-ROI criterion used by some companies as approval of IT investments. Our research shows that if a proper Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) approach is used, most IT hurdle rates are far too low.[view article]
Everything is Measurable
CIO Enterprise Magazine, 11/15/1997
This article is our classic and oft-quoted refutation of the idea of “intangibles” in IT. All perceived intangibles are actually an illusion caused by one of three types of misconceptions about measurement.[view article]
Measuring Value: Return On Investment
InformationWeek, 6/30/1997
Violino says “The intangible benefits of technology are emerging as the most important of all”. He interviews several experts including Doug Hubbard.[view article]
Risk vs. Return
InformationWeek, 06/30/1997
We were invited to write the first installment in a new series of guest-author articles for Information Week. This article describes some basic concepts for a how IT might apply the concepts of risk and return so common in finance.[inactive link]